Fun with Numbers

Now that you've seen the delegate count (post below this one), let's look at some of the things that can happen in the current races. First, to the left is a list of the upcoming races, the dates of those primaries and caucuses, and the total possible number of delegates.

NOTE -- when the news organizations come out with their numbers, they are usually less than the possible total. Often this is because of the "and a player to be named later rule" that comes from sports. But for fun, we're going to use ALL the possible delegates.

Thus, mathematically, if either candidate was able to capture all the delgates, or 1,332, either could conceivably get the nomination, as Clinton would have 2,252 delegates, or Obama would have 2,362, either number surpassing the 2,025 number without needing a single SuperDelegate.

However, that's not going to happen. Plus, the counts all change if Michigan does the do-over they are considering, or if the DNC relents and allows for current Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated. In addition, and very few people mention this, NO delegate is required to honour his or her commitment once the voting on the floor actually starts.

So now, let's play with numbers.

Assume that all of the delegates split 50/50, which I don't think will happen, that will yield at the Convention:

Clinton -- 1,586, or,
Obama -- 1,696

What I think WILL happen is that Obama is going to do MUCH better in certain states than the polls would indicate, and that Clinton will continue to fade (especially since Gruenwald and Penn are fighting, house-cleaning is on-going, cash is running out, and the Clintons NEVER believed this race would extend an hour past Tsunami Tuesday.)

So -- I started out assuming that Obama carries Wisconsin with 65%, and Hawaii with 70% next week. Then, I assumed that on 4 March, Obama carried Rhode Island and Vermont with 65%, and the two candidates split Texas and Ohio 50/50. (Remember, these are delegate counts, not necessarily direct popular vote due to apportionment). I further think that Obama will get 65% in Wyoming, 80% in Mississippi, 55% in Pennsylvania, 66% in Guam, 65% in Indiana, 75% in North Carolina, 50% in West Virginia, 35% in Kentucky, 75% in Oregon, 50% in Montana, 50% in South Dakota, and 10% in Puerto Rico.

If I'm right, this would mean Obama would come to the convention with 1,786 of the pledged delegates, or 54%, while Clinton would have 1,496, or 46%. Even if you add in the current pledged SuperDelegates, that only moves Obama to 53% (1,940, therefore would need an additional 85 to clinch the nomination) to Clinton's 47% (1,744, would need an additional 281 to clinch).

My numbers do not include any "momentum changes", and DO include the cracker factor. In addition, this is different from the actual popular vote. You can lose the popular vote and win more delegates, or there can be a direct correlation.

Remember -- only half of the 796 SuperDelegates have endorsed.

Still, it appears that the nomination will belong to Obama.