Halfway There

Obama is halfway to the magic number of 2025.

Usually, the pundits chat as the results come in about the exit polls. They are interested in the split of men/women, income, religion, ethnic group, race, etc. But last night, Obama took it ALL -- so it didn't matter.

HOWEVER there is a question about where a lot of those independents will go in the general.

Can Obama hold on to the independent coalition?

It's pretty obvious from the exit polls that they will go to McCain if Clinton is the nominee. She even looked strained at her El Paso speech last night, and spoke more about the past than the future.

Next week, it's Wisconsin and Hawaii.

There aren't a lot of solid poll numbers yet but it appears that Clinton isn't even bothering -- making a "Guiliani last stand" in Texas.

I've been reviewing the delegate numbers (as usual, to a level of detail that most of you can't stand) comparing not only the precincts, but also the CNN/NBC/CBS/NYT/AP numbers. And this time I read HOW they calculate. That even bored me. Because after all the jargon, they're guessing. Just like the rest of us.

I sent a note to Chuck Todd, because I think NBc's math is wrong, based on the state-by-state numbers listed (they seem to put 39 delegates in the MO state, but don't carry the 39 over to the tally) -- I got a note from a staffer that they will look into it and either let me know why they're right, or let me know why they're right. (Yes, you read it correctly -- they're sticking by their numbers, but she did thank me for being an astute viewer.)

The head-to-heads indicate over and over that McCain will beat Clinton, but Obama will beat McCain. I actually have Republican friends that have given money to Obama. Still "electibility" has fallen in importance in the exit polls. We'll see if it continues.

Here in Pennsylvania it is a Clinton stronghold, officially. I think it won't turn out that way -- the best she can do is split the 188 delegates. I believe that because of the number of college students in this state, ESPECIALLY in Philadelphia. I think Obama can win Ohio and Pennsylvania, and maybe even split Texas.

If it does come down to McCain-Obama, things will be interesting. What will happen to the Republican platform if Huckabee prevails in getting what he wants? Even the Republicans are split on stem cells, even Nancy Reagan is in favour. Tom Delay said he might not be able to vote for McCain because the Democrat may be "less dangerous" (his words). Will the evangelical, Limbaugh-Coulter alliance stay home?

On the Democratic side, the platform won't be an issue. (And by the way -- the major party platform documents tend to be boring, although I always read them anyway, but the minor parties tend to have outrageous platforms. (Check out the platform of the American Party if you need proof.) But seating the Michigan delegates will be a real issue, since only Clinton appeared on the ballot -- she was the only major candidate who refused to honour the committment and remove her name. Michigan is considering a do-over. Florida is sticking by it's guns to be seated, and has said they will not hold a recount. HOWEVER -- it may be that their delegate count won't matter if Obama's lead grows. If you run the numbers (and I have) Obama can win anyway. If the momentum continues, there may not even be a floor fight.

Of all the SuperDelegates, the two elder statesmen, Carter and Gore, have not endorsed. From what I understand, neither plans to, in case there is a need to pull the players in a room and talk to them. Bill can't do it for obvious reasons, and Howard Dean doesn't have the juice.

NEVER has an election cycle been more transparent, nor more interesting. And every day the process wins, we all win.