Why Obama can WIN

Barack Obama can win in November over John McCain for one simple reason: he offers the one thing people have been clamoring for, and never recieved -- an actual choice.

Assume for a minute that the Clintons cease shilling for John McBush, and the Democrats can find a way to bring Michigan and Florida back into the fold, thus increasing the chances that the party can win. Further assume that Al Sadr is politically astute (as he has shown himself to be) and he ends the “truce” he’s kept his people under in Sadr City. Finally, assume that the Fed continues its disastrous path of bailing out investment banks with no additional regulation.

Now, flip to July.

Gas is $4.00/gallon. Unemployment is up. More people have walked away from their homes or been foreclosed upon. Food prices are doing what they did in the late 70’s when prices rose seemingly by the hour. The streets of Iraq are running red with blood at a level which makes Saddam’s gassing of the Kurds seem tame by comparison. More of the Antarctic ice shelf has dissipated and chunked off.

John and Barack have a debate.

By the summer, the economy might be more of a news story then it is now. Sure, it’s a story with legs, but the media likes the political sniping better. But by summer, it will be pretty bad. And McBush will likely be on the same page that he was on yesterday: he doesn’t know, he’s hoping someone will give him an answer. (Check out the teleprompter story from yesterday for the details.) Obama will present the ideas he’s already come out with: new green jobs, a modified WPA to rebuild our infrastructure, new training programs, FAIR trade instead of “free” trade, and a renegotiation of NAFTA and CAFTA. Because the campaign personnel are smart, they will likely recommend the kind of banking oversight for the private banks that saved the commercial banks in the ‘30’s (which is actually the only hope the financial markets have).

With the Iraq surge the same level of fiasco as the rest of the war has been, McBush will still be pushing that we stay for 100 years, and Obama will be pushing a path to bringing the kids home.

Stark.

But there are also fundamental differences -- the biggest one has to do with ethics. The Wright thing might continue on, but even the people who find Obama’s responses to be unacceptable cannot deny that he did face the issue head on. He didn’t deny he knew the man. He didn’t deny that he was there in the pews. By summer, when the press is more focused on McBush, his ethics violations will come out, and all will see more proof of his being in bed (literally and figuratively) with the Telecom lobby his Commerce Committee is charged with overseeing.

The money issue will resurface, and Obama is clean. No beholden monies, no PAC money, no lobbyist money. Stark, stark contrast to both McBush and the Clintons. A money flow from regular people, most of whom give less than $50 at a time.

There are many who say that Obama cannot win because of the number of people who will not pull the lever for a black man. That thought repulses me to my very essence. But I know there is SOME truth to it. I’ve had it virtually spat in my face. True vitriol from low lifes too stupid to evaluate people AS people. Horrible sub-humans that continue to spread lies about Obama just because he is half-black.

But I believe that in the end, self-interest will trump malevolence. For racism is the sole thing that people can have against Obama. I believe that even the morons will come to see that hate is a zero sum game, and that “together” can lead to win-win.

Further, there is the map issue. There are states that are “true blue” which will vote Democratic no matter what. NY, CA, MA, MN and a long list of others. They could as much go red as I could. There is a lot often said about Florida -- and no, Obama can’t take Florida. Neither could Clinton, neither did Kerry nor Gore -- so just mark that off the list, and add in the states that Obama CAN take which Clinton cannot: New Mexico, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, and yes, even Michigan. SUSA has done the maps, and I’ve referred to them before. The Obama map is 290 Electoral Votes. And yes, that’s a win.

Next, there is the issue of coattails. It is important for the Democrats to win not only the White House this year, but to continue the increases in the House and the Senate. We have a clear shot at an unheard of 30 House seats. Plus Senate seats in MN, NM, CO, NH, and ME. They win bigger with the ticket headed by someone who will bring out the vote. Remember, the Clintons in 92, 96 and 98 had NO coattails, and in 94 caused (due mostly to the Hillary health care plan) the greatest House seat loss in history.

And finally, I know Obama can win because I work the campaign. I’ve lost count of how many campaigns I’ve worked - but this is truly different. People, who never in the past wanted to be involved, now enthused. I know Republicans (smart, decent people with whom I generally have philosophical differences, but they ARE smart and decent) and they are considering voting for Obama as their first Democrat. Obama runs a huge campaign, and the campaign runs better than any other. If this is how he runs a campaign, there is hope for the human mass we refer to as “government bureaucracy.”

Everyone touched by the campaign will tell you that this is different, this is hope, this is the legitimate chance for a better future for which we’ve been waiting. And once he is the nominee, more people will see that. And the country will be better for his leadership.

And as for winning the nomination -- yesterday, ABC news quoted a DNC member (and SuperDelegate) as saying Hillary Clinton was now playing Tonya Harding. Her last hope is to knee-cap Obama. Some say she is attempting to put a stake through the Democratic Party (okay, in the interest of full disclosure, I say that too) but my new take is that people ask if he’s battle-tested, ready to lead, able to take what the Republicans will throw at him in the general. I answer -- since he can survive the Clintons, he’s already seen the worst. I don’t know that she’s Tonya, but she’s certainly taking a page from Karl Rove’s playbook.

Bring it on.