Metrics, Numbers, Lies --oops-- I mean SPIN

You might have heard yesterday, as everyone was spinning the PA primary, that Hillary Clinton has won more popular votes than any other candidate.
This amuses me in too many ways to list.

If you want to see the report -- it's here http://facts.hillaryhub.com/archive/?id=7265

Now, and I speak as the daughter of a mathematician who taught me all sorts of things you can do with math, let's look at what you have to assume to believe that Hillary Clinton won more popular votes than Barack Obama. It is the ultimate lesson in spin.

First, in reality, Obama is up by about 500,000 votes. That's actual truth. BUT you can play with the numbers to make them come out differently (the master of counts is General Westmoreland with the Vietnam death counts, followed by most governments in how they explain spending.)

To get things to look like Hillary won the popular vote, you first count Florida, which is somewhat legitimate, except for the people who did NOT vote since it was billed as a beauty contest, so the results are suspect. Still, they ARE results, and this would cut Obama's lead by about 200,000. Then, you need to count Michigan and make the assumption that NOT ONE HUMAN BEING in the state of Michigan voted for Barack Obama. That way, you can include all the votes Hillary won under her name (left on the ballot after signing a pledge that the primary wouldn't count, and saying she WOULD pull her name). You must assume that NOT ONE person voting "uncommitted" was in favour of Barack.

Then, you pull all the caucus votes. A little civics here --> most caucus results do not include the actual popular vote. So, when 150 people, or 1,000 people, vote in a precinct, the vote is "ONE" for the precinct. It's not that hard to make a range guess at the attendance, since there are sign-in sheets, but that data doesn't get released. Still, for the Clinton count to work, you need to discount the "ONE" counts.

Therefore, if you cut out a bunch of states, Hillary does win the popular vote.

In the light of day, though, it's no more than spin.

Next -- prior to the PA primary, the line was that Hillary needed a double digit win in PA to stay in the race. She didn't get that because 9.38% does NOT round to 10. If you think it does, you failed math in grade school. The pundits did not fail math in grade school, Chuck Todd certainly didn't fail math in grade school -- but it is to the benefit of the news media that the internecine fight marches forward.

I'm going to skip the description of how Hillary won PA, unless people ask me to explain it. It primarily comes down to demographics (mostly age). What I want you to know is that despite the poll numbers which say that Hillary supporters will stay home in November if Obama gets the nomination -- it just isn't true. I myself have days when I say to myself that I will stay home in November if Hillary steals the nomination (which is all that is left since the process depends on DELEGATE counts, and she cannot win that) -- but I **AM** a structural Democrat. Hillary's base is comprised of structural Democrats -- old people voting Democratic their WHOLE lives, party regulars who work the polls and the elections, people who vote Democratic out of muscle memory. We're not staying home. None of us.

But you know who WILL stay home? The people for whom this is their first election. VASTLY underrepresented in polls since they have cell phones and no land lines, and because the call lists for pollsters and the Parties are a year behind, they won't vote in November if they feel that the nomination was stolen from their candidate.